It is hopeful to see that the temperature of earth has not increased from more than a decade. This is surprising as the researchers have perceived otherwise. More amazingly the warmest year observed globally was in 1998; not 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2009. It is true that no increase in the temperature of earth’s climate is observed in last 11 years.
The climate of our planet does not suggest so but it has happened. The hype in temperature has stopped despite of increasing man made carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. It is satisfying for those who climate change skeptics who forecasted that the interference of human beings in the natural environment of the planet is overstated. They base their claim on the fact that there are natural cycles that are going on the earth and control a number of factors, where incontrollable by humans. It is crucial to figure out what is happening on the earth. What and where is the evidence?
Active Discussion of Competitive Schools of Thought
In the last years of 20th century the temperature of the earth increased rapidly. Latest researches have shown that the solar influence has affected the increase in temperature on the planet earth. The earlier observed warming was due to the increased energy coming from the sun, the skeptics argued, as the 98 per cent of warmth on the earth is coming straight from the sun. The influence of sun on
our earth was rejected by a research conduced 2 years ago and published by the Royal Society.
The approach adopted by the scientist was simple. They collected the data of last 30 to 40 years in terms of solar out put and cosmic ray intensity and make a comparison of these trends with the average surface temperature around the globe. As put by the Dr Piers Forster, Leeds University, a leading supplier to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of this year, the results were, “Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity.”
Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction (a company specializing in long range weather forecasting) disagree with the Forster. He argues that the impact of solar charged particles on our lives is far greater than what is perceived yet. He thinks that these particles are wholly responsible for the changes in global temperature. He has decided to reveal his notion in a press conference at the end of this month in London. If he will be proved correct than the entire subject will be revolutionized by this single progress.
It is also interesting to observe the changes in the ocean of the planet. Oceans are the greatest storage medium of the earth. It is interesting to observe that the Pacific Ocean in last few years has started to lose its warmth and is getting colder. Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University researched the topic in November and acknowledged the relationship between the global temperature and the oceans. He observed that the warmth and the coldness of the ocean moves in a cycle the most significant of which is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).
The cycle of the ocean was positive, reflecting warmth as compared to the average temperature, in most of the time between 1980s and 1990s. Moreover, it was observed that the globe was also warm at that time. But in recent years it is observed that the oceans have started to cool down and there warmth is depreciating. Such cycles last for 30 years in past. Interestingly the cooling of the globe from 1945 to 1977 coincides with the cold pacific cycles.
“The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling,” as expressed by the Professor Easterbrook.
The climate change skeptics rely on this evidence and held it responsible for the steady temperature of the globe. They argue that it is not only men that affect the globe there are numerous other factors. There are so many other natural causes that are responsible for cooling and warming. The part played by the mankind is very small as compared to the part played by the nature.
The scientists who held mankind solely responsible for the global warming are not ready to convince with the evidence of oceans moving in cycles. The variation in solar system and the ocean cycles were incorporated into the climate models by the Hadley Centre of UK Met Office that is responsible for future climate predictions. They say it is nothing new. The centre claims that these factors are just two of the all contributing factors that are casting influence on the global temperature; all of these are accounted for by its models.
Met Office considers that the temperature has never observed to increase in a straight forecast-able line. There are always periods in which temporary cooling or slower warming happen. They think that it is important to keep in mind the long term trends of global temperature, and according to the Met Office it is something that simply shows that the trend is upwards.
The issue is far more confusing as the Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC last month claimed that there may be a time frame of another 10 to 20 years in which the temperature of our globe will continue to cool down. The UK Met Office says that the heating of the globe will resume.
Professor Latif is among the world’s top climate modelers and he is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. He has made it clear that the decrease in global temperature is a timely phenomenon and he is certainly not among the skeptics. This phenomenon will end when the overwhelming force of man made global warming will be strengthened to reassert itself upon the globe. So what can we expect in the years to come?
Concluding Word on two different Theories
We are encountering two entirely opposite predictions about the global warming. The Met Office holds its ground in claiming that the warming will resume itself and the half of the years between 2010 to 2015 will break the record of the 1998 as being the hottest years ever observed. The idea is rejected by the skeptics who still believe that the threat of global warming has been depleted. They predict that the temperature of earth will not reach the height of 1998 before 2030 as the cycle cannot be completed earlier. They say that a period of Global Cooling is obvious as a result of solar cycles and ocean cycles.
What will happen is blurred. Who to believe? The readers and the dwellers of the planet are confused as all of them are hoping for the best but one thing is crystal clear that the debate on global warming can not end here. It has a long way to go before making the contributing factors clear. However, few years have been left before the UK Met Office can be proved right or wrong. If they are right than the coming years are going to blow up the habitation on this planet. On the other hand the correctness of skeptics will lead us to a comforting life in moderate temperature caused by the part played by the natural cycle of the oceans. Let’s wait and closely watch the scene prepared by the hidden forces that are running the solar system. For now the global warming has seized and global cooling is moving on.